It has been 22 days, Russia started to attack Ukraine. (local time, March 17th) February 24th, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war began by Russia invading Donbas, Ukraine. The Russian army is fully armed with the newest weapons and started attacking Ukraine in every place, including ground, sky, and water. They attacked not only their military facilities but also civilian areas. Attacking civilian regions means that they infringed the Geneva Convention of 1949 signed after World War II. 

According to the data on March 15 of the United Nations (UN) Office of the High Commissioner for Humans, in the Russian-Ukraine war, there were 1,900 casualties in Ukraine, alone. Also, 726 people died, and 52 people of them were kids.

Most of the recorded casualties have resulted from explosive weapons with a wide impact range, such as multiple rocket artillery fires, missiles, and airstrikes. However, the UN said that the actual number of casualties would be more than the official number of deaths. It is difficult to confirm the information because the government controls some areas by intensive war. For instance, the location of Izium, Mariupol, and Volnovakha had many civilian casualties. Still, we could not include that in the information above because it is hard to get official information. 

Russia's offense level is evacuating, and the war changes more violently. According to the report of the Financial Times, in England, on March 16, Russia and Ukraine both agreed to make a draft of a provisional 'peace agreement,' and the negotiation is ongoing over the details. Despite it, Russia's attacking situation is still ongoing, and it seems that the number of casualties will increase.

The main reason for this war is Russia's desire to keep the original system. Russia is likely to stay in check with the situation of the neighboring countries whether they are willing to maintain close relations with the West rather than Russia and become stable economically.

Jeon Hong-Chan (Prof. of Political Diplomacy, PNU) said, "The reason for NATO is apparent. Among the countries that made up the Soviet Union in the past became stable in economic situation after getting closer to the West. Since Belarus and Ukraine had been part of Russia for a long time, if these countries become close to the West, Russia's regime legitimacy problem will arise."

Russia and Ukraine are two different countries, but they have shared the same history and culture for a long time. They started from the countries of the Rus that existed in Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, mainly in Kyiv, today's Eastern European region, called Kyiv Ruth, from 882 to 1240. 

Relations between Ukraine and Russia were good at the time of 1991 Ukraine independence, which influenced the destruction of the Soviet Union. Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine established friendly relations by standing with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). But the situation changed in 2008. Countries of CIS started to show pro-Western propensity. On the other hand, Russia maintained its political system without any changes, even the Soviet Union has destroyed. The alliance broke when Russia invaded Georgia due to Georgia's pro-Western policy.

If there is an economic gap between the two countries that share a large part of history and culture, eventually, the only other political system draws attention. The fact that Ukraine depended on the West for economic development came as a significant threat to Russia and caused this invasion. Prof. Jeon said, "As Ukraine gradually moved into the Western side, democracy developed, and the economy improved. It became difficult for Russia to maintain the Putin regime, which is trapped in a dictatorship and economic stagnation. These concerns became the greatest impact on the outbreak of the war."

Entering the 21st century, the importance of oil has increased. According to Korea Energy Economics Institute, international oil prices kept rising in the 21st century. Based on the Bayou standard, the average annual cost was 12.21 dollars per barrel in 1998, reaching 26.27 dollars in 2000.

Therefore, the world economy has been affected by the political changes in the Middle East, where oil production is the central part. And Russia also joined here. Russia has a great portion of resources of oil and natural gas, and they seized the opportunity to grow the economy with Putin in power. "The world oil price has risen continuously since 2000, and therefore Russia's economy has recovered," said Prof. Jeon, about this situation.

Putin's confidence in this invasion can be seen to coincide with the background of this economic growth. "When Russia came to power in 2000, Russia's economy was in the worst situation and when their international status was weak, Putin raised the economy. So, Putin's economic boost and achievement formed the structure of not providing reasonable political advice to Putin.  

However, Russia was put into economic isolation during this war. The world widely started economic sanctions on Russia, opposing this war. The International Interbank Telecommunication Association, SWIFT, kicked out seven banks, including VTB, Russian state-run banks, and their subsidiaries. SWIFT is an international network that connects 11,000 banks in 200 countries around the world. If a bank is excluded from SWIFT, financial transactions in the international market will be very hard.

It seems that exports of resources of oil and natural gas, which lifted Russia from the economic crisis, will be adjusted. On March 8, the United States announced that it would stop the imports of oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia. Also, the EU will join the U.S., and they announced they planned to reduce the dependence on Russian resources. By the end of this year, their plan is to reduce two-thirds of natural gas imports from Russia and will become totally independent from Russian fossil fuels by 2030.

In this situation, the Russian economy is responding immediately. The Russian currency, the ruble, stood at 105 rubles per U.S. dollar on the 17th, and the ruble plummeted more than 30% compared to before the invasion. It was 70 to 80 rubles per dollar before.

Then, is Russia ever predicting the result of the invasion? Experts are saying that Russia thought that it could change Ukraine's power within a short time of the invasion. They never thought the situation was going to be this bad with economic sanctions.

This time is not the first time Russia has endured invasion. After the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, Russia had considerable confidence in the invasion. Prof. Jeon said, "Like the previous conflict of Ukraine, the Crimean Peninsula, most of the time Russia succeeded their goals to what they wanted. They thought they could change the power of Ukraine, just like before."

The Russia-Ukraine war does not seem to end early. However, it is impossible for Russia to change the situation as to how they want. At the situation of the economic sanctions and counterattack of Ukraine are continuing, Prof. Jeon said, "This war will greatly degrade Russia's international status and will isolate Russia internally and externally."

Editor-in-Cheif Lee Chae-Hyeon

Translated by Yun Chae-Eun