The South Korean government is pushing for a diplomatic policy that strengthens cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan while pushing back against North Korea, China, and Russia. In this context, North Korea and Russia are taking close military actions, intensifying New Cold War concerns over the Korean Peninsula.

The New Cold War refers to the confrontation at the political, economic, and cultural levels caused by the US policy of blocking China and Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The beginning of the New Cold War was a sharpening conflict rivalry between the US and China-Russia. However, military cooperation between North Korea, China, and Russia seems to strengthen in line with the recently established trilateral alliance between South Korea, the US, and Japan.

On September 15th, the New York Times (NYT) reported that North Korea and Russia were in close contact and analyzed that it is “the Russian president’s strategy to put the US through trouble.” According to reports, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un accepted an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin and conducted a North Korea-Russia summit from September 12th to 17th in Russia. Kim and Putin, who met for the first time in four years and five months, agreed to strengthen military, economic, industry, and tourism cooperation. Putin expressed a willingness to support North Korea’s satellite development, indicating the potential for military cooperation. Kim visited various facilities, including fighter jet production factories, fighter military bases, and naval bases, and looked into Russian weapons.

NYT reported that Russia’s actions aimed to secure weapons such as ammunition needed for the war in Ukraine and expand the North Korean nuclear and missile issues threatening the US. Former President of Korea Institute for National Unification Cheon Seong-Whun, who previously served as the Secretary of Cheong Wa Dae National Security Strategy, also explained in a Hankookilbo article on September 18th that “Russia has stepped into the hegemonic competition in Asia. As the stakes have grown larger, the strategic value of South Korea and North Korea has been highlighted in a situation in the Korean Peninsula that has been imprinted as the front line of the New Cold War confrontation.”

Foreign press also paid attention to China’s stance. The Times, a British national newspaper, reported on September 14th that China would tolerate arms deals between North Korea and Russia if North Korea provided many old Soviet-made weapons to Russia, intending to prevent Russia’s defeat in the war with Ukraine. While China cannot directly help Russia, it has much to gain if Russia wins the war, so it will turn a blind eye to North Korea's arms trade with Russia. On the other hand, the NYT analyzed on September 16th that if Putin and Kim were to improve their bilateral relationship significantly, it could put Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a problematic situation. Furthermore, the NYT explained that if the relationship between North Korea and Russia gets closer, both countries might become less dependent on China, which could reduce the influence that China is perceived to have in global negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine and curbing North Korea’s nuclear program.

The confrontation is so serious between blocs that the term “New Cold War” is being used, but the diplomatic risks for the South Korean government in dealing with North Korea and Russia are increasing. On August 18th, at the South Korea-US-Japan summit held at Camp David in the US, a month before the North Korea-Russia summit, the leaders of South Korea-US-Japan specified North Korea, China, and Russia as the actual threat entities. To counter the threat, the countries have effectively formed a military alliance by sharing real-time North Korean missile alert information and cooperating in the ballistic missile defense sector.

The South Korean government has maintained a firm stance towards North Korea. President Yoon Suk-Yeol, following the South Korea-US summit on April 26th, officially announced the “Washington Declaration,” which included measures to enhance deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear expansion. The following day, during a speech in the US Congress, Yoon condemned the North Korean human rights situation along with its nuclear and missile development. In August, the Ministry of Unification’s 2024 budget was drastically cut to three-quarters against the previous year. Budget cuts of over 40% were made in the inter-Korean economic cooperation sectors, including the Kaesong Industrial Region. The Ministry of Unification’s inter-Korean dialogue and exchange cooperation organization was merged into the Office of the Inter-Korean Dialogue, with the number of employees reduced by 81.

South Korea’s public support for Ukraine has provoked Russia. Yoon announced in July that South Korea would expand aid to Ukraine by providing landmine detectors and mine clearance equipment. Additionally, at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India, on September 9th, he publicly announced a 2.3 billion aid plan for Ukraine, increasing the support scale. Previously, in April, when Yoon mentioned the possibility of South Korea providing weapons to Ukraine in an interview with Reuters, Russia issued an official statement in response, expressing its formal opposition.

The possibility of improving relations with China remains uncertain. During the South Korea-China summit held on September 7th in Indonesia, China expressed its willingness to actively cooperate with South Korea’s proposal for a South Korea-Japan-China trilateral summit to be held this year, indicating a proactive approach to managing South Korea-China relations. Previously, China had strongly disagreed with the trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan. On August 19th, Huanqiu Shibao, the Chinese state-run media, criticized the South Korea-US-Japan trilateral summit, stating that “South Korea and Japan will pay a very high price for serving as sentinels for the US. In particular, South Korea will face the most pressure.” On August 21st, the Chinese government also emphasized in an official stance that their meeting would heighten the risk of confrontation of the blocs and demanded an immediate cessation of actions that foster division and confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region.

As confrontation intensifies in international relations, security threats and economic risks on the Korean Peninsula also increase. Jang Chang-Jun (Prof. of Global Peace Research Institute, Hanshin University) said, “The more relations with China and Russia are cut off, the more serious the domestic economy faces. China is South Korea’s largest trading partner, and the worsening economic ties with China have led to a trade deficit that has persisted for over a year.” Prof. Jang added, “As South Korea becomes entangled in the New Cold War involving the US, the deteriorating relations with Russia may pose difficulty in securing energy resources.” Finally, he expressed concern about the deepening military cooperation among North Korea, China, and Russia, which is expected to be advanced through upcoming visits by Russian government representatives to North Korea and the China-Russia summit.

Reporter Kim Tae-Yi

Translated by Kim Tae-Yi