On February 17th, the United Nations (UN) announced that the aid system in northwestern Syria is being “overwhelmed” as the residents displaced by the Syrian government’s offensive in Idlib increase. Since last December, about 900 thousand people have been displaced from the clashes in northwestern alone, and children are dying from freezing temperatures and inhumane living conditions of the refugee camps, the UN added. The cause of this recent humanitarian crisis is the confrontation between Russia-backed Syrian government forces and Turkey-backed Syrian rebels at Idlib.

           Idlib is a city in northwestern Syria, and it has been under the control of the Syrian rebels since 2011. There had been several tensions in the region. However, in 2018, Turkey, which supported the Syrian rebels, and Russia, which supported the government forces, agreed to a ceasefire around Idlib and decided to set up a demilitarized buffer zone. However, the al-Qaeda-linked Jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over the region since then. As a result, the government and Russia condemned the HTS for taking control of the region and launched an assault on the province in April 2019. About 400 thousand people were dislodged before they agreed on a truce in August 2019. Since last December, the government forces have launched another offensive to take back Idlib and the surrounding areas, and additional 900 thousand civilians have been displaced again. Turkey, which wor-ries about a further influx of Syrian refugees, has threatened to retaliate on a series of attacks. Talks were held between Turkey and Russia on the calm of the region since February 17th. However, as of March 1st, they haven’t reached an agreement yet.

          The first reason why Turkey has intervened continuously in the Syrian civil war is that Turkey perceives the rise of the Kurds in Syria as a threat. The Kurds are an ethnic group of the region, which spans Turkey, Syria, etc. Through the Syrian civil war, the Kurds have established an autonomous government called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria. Turkey considers the SDF has a link with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish separatist group in Turkey that has fought the Turkish government for decades. Turkey fears Syrian Kurdish would inspire its Kurdish population and create the PKK government within its border. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed several times that the SDF in Syria is occupying a territory illegitimately, and Turkey has attacked the SDF across the border since October 2019.

           Another reason for Turkey’s involvement in Syria is to prevent the further influx of refugees. Turkey is the largest host country of refugees, with over 3.66 million refugees, according to the UN. Turkey responded positively and generously to the refugees, the unemployment rate over 14 percent and poor economic conditions due to a trade war with the United States have changed the public opinion about refugees. A study by Metropoll in September 2019 found that about 75 percent of Turks think that Syrian refugees should return to Syria “even if the war continues.” To handle the refugee problem, Turkey wants to create a 32-kilometer-deep, 480-kilometer-long corridor inside Syria, called the “safe zone.” As a result, Turkish troops already created the “safe zone” in some areas when they launched a military incursion against the Kurds last October. 

           In the case of Russia, an aspiration of using ports bound for the Mediterranean led Russia to focus on Syria. Since the Soviet Union, Russia has been renting and operating the Syrian port of Tartus. The port is an important strategic point for Russia, not only because it is the only port it has outside of its own country, but also the port will increase the scope of its naval ships’ operations. In 2018, Moscow renewed its lease over the port for the next 49 years with the support of the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. In addition, Russia announced in December 2019 that it would spend 500 million dollars on the modernization of the Tartus port in Syria.  Russia is constantly intervening in Syria's affairs, since losing government forces could threaten Russia's occupation of the port of Tartus. 

           Gabriel T. Jung (CEO, Save the Children) said, "Due to the hostilities in Syria's Idlib province, more than 700 thousand people, mostly women and children, have fled their homes. On their way to safety, children have died of heart attacks from the severe cold or suffocated in their tents. For them, facilities used by children and unarmed civilians should be designated and protected as no-attack zones. In addition, the international community must monitor whether human rights laws get enough respect in the region. Individuals' participation in fundraising or signature-collecting campaigns would also be helpful."

By Jung Sung-Eun, Planning Director

jse7703@pusan.ac.kr